2022 MLB trade deadline: How deals impact the betting odds – VSiN
By Adam Burke (VSiN.com)
This year’s Major League Baseball Trade Deadline has potential to be one of the wildest and craziest in history. There are a lot of contenders in search of roster upgrades with the additional wild-card spot in each league.
Adam Burke will be updating a running blog for the Trade Deadline that highlights the transactions that take place and the betting impacts of those moves, including the under-the-radar trades that may not move the line, but will actively help a team for the final two months of the regular season and possibly beyond.
With the Trade Deadline in the books, here are the DraftKings World Series odds as of 5 p.m. PT:
Dodgers + 370
A flurry of late trades came in right before the Trade Deadline at 6 p.m. ET: It was a very busy rush at the end to get deals sent in to the league offices, so let's run through those:
SP Noah Syndergaard joins the Phillies: The Phillies needed pitching help and defensive help and they checked both boxes today. They also reunited Syndergaard with his former rotation mate Zack Wheeler with a late deal that sent Mickey Moniak and another prospect to the Angels. I'm not sure I love the fit of Thor, who is a ground ball guy with a low strikeout rate this season. He'll have to induce more swings and misses and get more punchouts with this defensive infield, but he's better than the game of musical chairs at the back end of the Philly rotation.
Moniak was once a top prospect, so we'll see how he fits in with the Angels, who traded Brandon Marsh earlier today. The Phillies were 45/1 entering the day and remain there. (4:45 p.m. PT)
RP Mychal Givens back with Buck Showalter: The Mets made a late move to grab one of the two relievers we expected to see traded for the Cubs. While David Robertson went to the divisional rival Phillies, Givens heads to Queens to join New York's stable of relievers. Givens had a 2.66 ERA in 40.2 innings with the North Siders and will be a nice piece in middle relief for the Metropolitans, who are a short shot at + 650. (4:45 p.m. PT)
Braves pick up RP Raisel Iglesias from Angels: This was a really interesting move because Iglesias is actually owed $48M over the next three seasons, including what is left on his $10M contract for this season. That's a big commitment for a reliever, but the Braves felt it was worth it. The Angels reunited with SP/RP Jesse Chavez and also picked up LHP Tucker Davidson. Atlanta's odds did not move.
Cardinals/Yankees complete interesting swap: The Cardinals needed starting pitching and got another one in LHP Jordan Montgomery from the Yankees in exchange for OF Harrison Bader. Bader was a Gold Glove CF for St. Louis last season, but he does have a limited offensive profile against righties. He does hit lefties very well, though, so he'll be a valuable piece for a team that filled most of its needs yesterday.
I'm a really big fan of Montgomery and the Redbirds definitely upgraded their rotation with him and Jose Quintana. DraftKings didn't move St. Louis's odds, but I do think that they have a better chance at winning the NL Central now than they did before the Trade Deadline
Bader has been out since June 26 with a foot injury and there is a player to be named later stipulation in the deal if Bader cannot make it back this season.
Blue Jays make two late moves for 2B Whit Merrifield, RHP Mitch White: The Blue Jays didn't make any big splashes, but did trade for Merrifield (who was unvaccinated as recently as two weeks ago) from the Royals and White from the Dodgers. I do like both moves for the Blue Jays, especially because Merrifield can play 2B or OF and also has a little bit of speed as a guy that can pinch run late in games. Toronto's odds remained at 12/1 after all the transactions.
Twins add another bullpen arm from AL Central rival: "Rival" is a loose term here, as the Twins got Michael Fulmer from the Tigers. They gave up RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long, so the Twins ultimately got two late-inning arms in Fulmer and Jorge Lopez, along with Reds SP Tyler Mahle. It wasn't the best Trade Deadline, but given that the White Sox and Guardians did virtually nothing, Minnesota is positioned well in the lowly AL Central Division. Their odds didn't move to win the World Series and still sit at 65/1, but they are now the AL Central favorites at + 135. (4:25 p.m. PT)
Mariners add depth with C Curt Casali, SP Matthew Boyd, INF Jake Lamb: Seattle made a nice move acquiring backup catcher Curt Casali, who caught Luis Castillo from 2018-20 with the Reds. He's a good pickup to give Cal Raleigh a break, who has been a remarkable contributor for the Mariners this season. It doesn't exactly move the needle, but Casali's one of those guys that contending teams should look to stockpile. (2:10 p.m. PT)
Update: In subsequent deals, Seattle also added Lamb from the Dodgers and Boyd from the Giants. Boyd hasn't pitched yet this season, but is hoping for a late-season return. Lamb is not much of an addition, but he has done well against righties in a small sample size this season. (2:30 p.m. PT)
Padres shove more chips in the middle, add INF Brandon Drury: AJ Preller is all-in and splashing the pot. Now San Diego added Drury from the Reds, thought to be one of the most sought-after players at the deadline because he can play every infield position. Drury's versatility is nice, but I'm not as bullish on this move.
He's batting .274/.335/.520, but his production in maybe the second-best hitter's park in baseball has carried him, as he's posted a .298/.354/.561 slash in Cincinnati and a .241/.309/.462 slash on the road. He's still performed well on the road, but this is far and away the best season of his career.
Cincinnati got Victor Acosta from the Padres, an 18-year-old infielder in Rookie ball, who grades as a plus fielder and runner. San Diego is still 11/1 at DraftKings, but I think that price could go down more when the dust settles. (1:35 p.m. PT)
Twins finally get SP help, add Tyler Mahle from Reds: I felt like the Twins really needed one of Frankie Montas or Luis Castillo. Instead, they wind up with Mahle, who will be ecstatic to get away from Great American Ball Park. Mahle owns a 3.74 ERA in 308.1 innings on the road in his career, but had a 5.02 ERA in 285.1 innings in the hitter's haven that is GABP. It's a really important add for a team that desperately needs starting pitching help.
The Reds have been doing an outstanding job with pitcher development in the minor leagues and added Steven Hajjar to their collection of arms. They also got prospect hitters Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Steer is a high-floor infielder that puts a lot of balls in play and I wouldn't be shocked to see him debut very soon. Between this and the Castillo deal, Reds fans should be excited about the returns.
The Twins didn't move from + 150 to win the AL Central or 65/1 for the World Series, which surprises me a little, because Mahle is way better than what they had. (1:05 p.m. PT)
Mets get OF Darin Ruf from Giants: The Giants look to be more seller than buyer here at the Trade Deadline, as they're open for business on Carlos Rodon and just moved Ruf to the Mets. San Francisco got JD Davis, Nick Zwack, Carson Seymour and Thomas Szapucki for Ruf, who is having a down year, but remains an excellent platoon bat against lefties, which is precisely why the Mets acquired him. No move to their futures price, but this was a needed player for their lineup. Both Ruf and Davis have two years of team control left after this season.
I actually like the deal more for the Giants, as Davis should play a big role and Szapucki is a bullpen/sixth starter arm that could help right now. Zwack and Seymour are High-A lottery ticket pitchers, with Zwack the more promising of the two and he could be a good one. (1 p.m. PT)
Phillies also reunite with RP David Robertson: The players we expected to see traded from the Cubs are finally on the move. Robertson was one of the most obvious, as he heads back to Philly, where he played in 2019 for just seven games in an injury-riddled season. He had a 2.23 ERA with a 3.51 FIP with 14 saves in 36 appearances for the Cubs. Chicago got back High-A SP Ben Brown, who stands 6-foot-6 and has 105 K in 73 IP. The Phillies are still 45/1 with this move and the following move. (1 p.m. PT)
Angels/Phillies complete a trade: And an interesting trade at that. The Phillies picked up OF Brandon Marsh in exchange for one of their top prospects, C Logan O'Hoppe. With JT Realmuto signed through 2025, the Phillies felt comfortable moving O'Hoppe for Marsh, who is not hitting at the MLB level, but is playing very well defensively in LF. The Phillies could move Kyle Schwarber to DH now and let Marsh play LF or CF. Marsh is only batting .226/.284/.353 with an 80 wRC + (means he's 20% below league average offensively), but the glove plays for a team that needs a glove.
Marsh has also struck out over 36% of the time, but has made decent contract when he hits the ball. O'Hoppe has 15 homers in Double-A and won't turn 23 until February. (12:55 p.m. PT)
1B/DH Luke Voit added to Padres/Nationals mega-deal: With Hosmer saying to a move to D.C., Voit has instead been installed in the deal, which is just about complete. More details HERE.
1B Eric Hosmer's interesting day is done: After being included in arguably the biggest trade of the last 30 years, only to opt not to waive his no-trade clause, Hosmer is now a Boston Red Sock. The Sox are getting a deeply-discounted Hosmer, who will have the majority of the money he is owed on San Diego's books. Hosmer still has three years at $39M on his contract after this season.
Boston badly needed an upgrade at first base and Hosmer does represent that. His low launch angle may even create a few more homers around Pesky's pole. The Red Sox are still 80/1 for the World Series and + 195 to make the playoffs with this addition per DK. (11:35 a.m. PT)
Update: With significant money going to Boston to cover Hosmer's salary, the Padres got 6-foot-5, 265-pound Triple-A LHP Jay Groome. Health has been the question for Groome, but the former first-rounder is only 23 and remains an intriguing arm.
OF Joey Gallo goes coast to coast: The Los Angeles Dodgers have had a quiet Trade Deadline, but they made a move on Tuesday afternoon by picking up Joey Gallo from the New York Yankees. Yankees fans are probably happy to send Gallo about as far away as possible, as the outfielder heads to the City of Angels. Gallo is batting .159/.282/.339 this season with a 38.8% K%. He's walking almost 15% of the time, but has only hit 12 homers and hasn't made enough quality contact.
Neither team's World Series odds moved in light of this trade, which sent SP Clayton Beeter to the Yanks. He's the pitcher version of Gallo with 88 strikeouts, 35 walks and 10 homers allowed in 51.2 innings at Double-A. (11:20 a.m. PT)
Blue Jays get relief from Marlins: Toronto has been overshadowed in the AL East and at the Trade Deadline by the New York Yankees, but the Blue Jays boosted their bullpen a bit today by acquiring RPs Anthony Bass and Zach Pop from Miami in exchange for shortstop Jordan Groshans. Bass, who was a Blue Jay in 2020, has a stellar 1.41 ERA with a 2.06 FIP in 45 appearances while pitching in high-leverage for the Marlins. Pop is an extreme ground ball guy with a 3.60 ERA and a 2.81 FIP in his 20 innings of work.
These are good adds for the Toronto pen. The cost was Groshans, who is only slashing .250/.348/.296. He's a bat-to-ball type of player with limited power and has to rely on a high batting average on balls in play to pair with a good walk rate. He's a solid fielder with decent speed, but a player you give up to get some bullpen help for a playoff push.
The Blue Jays are still 12/1 at DraftKings to win the World Series with no movement based on this deal. (11 a.m. PT)
OF Juan Soto to Padres in blockbuster deal: The Juan Soto deal is virtually done, as Eric Hosmer's inclusion is not mandatory for the trade to go through. I wrote up a detailed breakdown of the Soto trade: https://www.vsin.com/juan-soto-and-josh-bell-to-padres-in-blockbuster-trade-that-moves-world-series-odds/
Contenders swap pitchers as Astros/Braves complete deal: The Astros and Braves made a rather interesting swap, as Atlanta got SP Jake Odorizzi and sent RP Will Smith to the Lone Star State. As a pretty extreme fly ball guy, I have concerns about Odorizzi heading to Atlanta and the hot, humid conditions. There are also better offenses in the NL East with the Mets and Phillies.
Smith has a 4.38 ERA, but a 5.23 FIP due to problems with walks and long balls. The Astros have been good at limiting pitcher walks (think Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier), so I think there's a good chance that they fix Smith and do so pretty quickly. I tend to like this deal more for Houston, but understand why the Braves wanted some starting pitching depth.
Atlanta also added Robbie Grossman from the Tigers to get an extra pinch-hitter and platoon bat. With no movement to the odds, I just figured I'd make a quick note of it. (8:30 p.m. PT)
Brewers acquire RP Matt Bush as bullpen retooling continues: Milwaukee adds Bush, who has a 2.95 ERA for the Rangers this season in 40 appearances. The Brewers needed some help and depth in middle relief and now they've gotten it for the low cost of INF Mark Mathias. Another move that won't adjust Milwaukee's World Series price, but they're a better team for this deal. (8:15 p.m. PT)
Cardinals add SP Jose Quintana from Pirates: Intra-division trades are not exactly commonplace in any sport, but we've got one here with the Cardinals acquiring a much-needed rotation upgrade in Quintana. There were likely a lot of suitors for him with very minimal money left on his $2 million contract. He's been strong with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.24 FIP in his 20 starts.
With Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz on IL, Quintana slots right into the rotation. This won't move St. Louis's odds, but he is a clear upgrade. The Redbirds are 50/1 at DraftKings. (6:45 p.m. PT)
Update: The Cardinals are also getting reliever Chris Stratton, who has a 5.09 ERA with a 3.61 FIP. He'll get a huge upgrade from the St. Louis defense to lower his .365 BABIP against. He's not a bad addition to the pen with a big defensive uptick. (8:15 p.m. PT)
Non-playoff teams make a deal; Royals/Diamondbacks trade: The Royals acquired SP/RP Luke Weaver from Arizona for 3B Emmanuel Rivera. This feels like a change of scenery deal for both guys and has zero betting impact, but it is always weird to see two last-place teams make a deal with each other at the Deadline. (4:30 p.m. PT)
Sox swap players; RP Jake Diekman to White, C Reese McGuire to Red: I really like this move for the White Sox, as they got Tony La Russa a new toy to play with and probably break the first time he uses it. Diekman hasn't been able to harness his control, and the 4.23 ERA with a 4.97 FIP isn't a great look, but he has a lot of swing-and-miss upside. The three-batter rule really hurt a guy like him.
McGuire replaces Vazquez and the White Sox had been carrying three catchers since Yasmani Grandal returned from injury. This trade had no bearing on the odds, but I think Diekman is a useful piece for the White Sox. (4:25 p.m. PT)
Red Sox also decide to kind of buy? Add OF Tommy Pham from Reds: Within a half hour of looking like a seller with the Vazquez deal, the Red Sox acquired Pham to serve as a bench bat and platoon outfielder in all likelihood. Pham is slashing .290/.371/.462 against lefties, but has batted just .219/.301/.340 against righties.
This trade doesn't really move the needle for me and won't in the betting markets either. Pham does walk a lot and the Red Sox rank 24th in BB% on the season. Boston already boasts a top-10 offense against lefties and I'm not sure Pham is a useful everyday player. Weird move here. (4 p.m. PT)
Red Sox decide to sell, trade C Christian Vazquez to Astros: Houston has been busy this afternoon and just upgraded at the catcher position with Vazquez from the Red Sox. There were some questions as to whether or not Boston would be a buyer or a seller, but this trade seems to imply the latter, as J.D. Martinez could be next to get moved.
Vazquez was drafted by the Red Sox in 2008 and made his MLB debut in 2014. It's a tough day for a lot of players and Vazquez was bombarded by the media after taking BP with the Red Sox at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Quite an uncomfortable situation for him, as now he'll simply change clubhouses and watch his former team play his new team.
Astros catchers are batting .164/.232/.306 on the season, so Vazquez, who is batting .282/.327/.432 represents a nice addition. He can play first base as well. This trade didn't alter the odds at all for Houston, but the sportsbooks might as well lower Boston's price since they seem to be waving the white flag. (3:45 p.m. PT)
Yankees get SP Frankie Montas & RP Lou Trivino; Astros get 1B/OF Trey Mancini from Orioles: In two trades featuring AL teams that basically hit the Twitter wire simultaneously, the Yankees picked up the top remaining starting pitcher on the market by acquiring Montas and the Astros snagged Mancini from the Orioles. DraftKings took down AL Pennant and World Series odds immediately upon the Montas breaking news and re-posted a few minutes later.
Per DraftKings, the Yankees are now co-favorites with the Dodgers at + 360 (down from 390 pre-trade) to win the World Series and + 160 to win the AL. The Astros remained at + 450 to win the World Series and are + 185 to win the AL. The adjustment to the Yankees also bumped the Blue Jays to 14/1 (up from 12/1) and the White Sox jumped out to 40/1 (from 35/1).
Let's start with the Astros/Orioles deal because it's easy. Yulieski Gurriel has not played as well this season as he has in the past, so Mancini represents an upgrade at 1B. He's also a nice insurance policy for the ongoing injury to Michael Brantley, who has missed over a month with shoulder discomfort. Houston was + 450 before the deal and did not move. The Orioles, meanwhile, have moved up into the + 160ish range for tonight's game against the Rangers. It will be a sad, emotional goodbye between Mancini and his teammates, plus his bat is an important one in that lineup.
Now, the Montas deal. Domingo German is unreliable and Luis Severino is on the IL with an injured lat. Montas is also not a rental, as he (and Trivino) is arbitration-eligible next season. That gives the Yankees a lot of confidence going into next season, as they'll lose Jameson Taillon to FA (I wouldn't be shocked if they traded Taillon to a team that missed out on Montas like the Twins). New York had three needs – bat, SP, RP and they've filled all three. I would guess that they're pretty much done at this point.
As far as the A's, they've traded Christian Bethancourt, Montas and Trivino, with Ramon Laureano likely to come and maybe Sean Murphy. They got a good return here, as I really like JP Sears, and they also got a FanGraphs' Top 50 prospect in Triple-A starter Ken Waldichuk and another Top 100 guy in Luis Medina. It was a big, impressive haul for Oakland. (1:40 p.m. PT)
An update!: The Orioles/Astros deal includes a third party and that is the Rays, who got OF Jose Siri from Houston. That move clears a 40-man spot for Mancini, so I would guess that the Orioles got back some lower-level prospects that were not on the 40-man roster. (2:05 p.m. PT)
Update Pt 2: The Orioles got pitchers Chayce McDermott (HOU) and Seth Johnson (TB) in the three-team trade. McDermott's brother, Sean, plays for the Memphis Hustle in the G-League. Johnson is about to have Tommy John surgery, but these are two arms with upside that are a long way from the Majors. No odds changed with this trade. (2:15 p.m. PT)
Rays/Dodgers complete minor deal: The Dodgers sent left-handed reliever Garrett Cleavinger to the Rays in exchange for an 18-year-old outfielder. Los Angeles has a 40-man roster crunch and will soon need to activate Dustin May from the 60-day IL. It could be a precursor to a trade or just some internal roster management.
For the Rays, Cleavinger adds depth to a bullpen ravaged by injuries, but one that just got back Pete Fairbanks and Jalen Beeks, and could also activate Nick Anderson sometime this month. The Rays are -125 to make the playoffs at DraftKings and that bet looks better as they get healthier. (11:25 a.m. PT)
Angels to keep Shohei Ohtani?: Jon Heyman of the New York Post is reporting that the Angels have stopped listening to trade offers for the two-way superstar. Teams that were hoping to avoid the Juan Soto sweepstakes and instead focus on Ohtani now reportedly have to look at alternatives.
It seems like owner Arte Moreno said no. Personally, I think the Angels should have traded Ohtani to stockpile prospects in what is a very bad farm system. Ohtani remains the second choice to win the AL MVP at + 290 per DraftKings, but his price would have likely moved down if traded to a contender. (10:55 a.m. PT)
Brewers trade RP Josh Hader to Padres in shocking deal: In a holy [expletive] trade, Milwaukee sent their dominant closer to San Diego in a five-player trade. The Brewers picked up San Diego’s closer, Taylor Rogers, along with pitchers Dinelson Lamet, Robert Gasser and OF Esteury Ruiz.
Brewers GM David Stearns typically does something noteworthy at the Trade Deadline and this qualifies. Hader, whose wife recently had a very challenging pregnancy causing him to miss time, has struggled of late and has an ERA of 4.24 for the season over 34 innings. Rogers has also hit the skids lately.
Ruiz was recently called up by the Padres after posting a collective .333/.467/.560 slash in 77 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Gasser is a 23-year-old lefty pitching in High-A with a big strikeout rate and some decent peripherals. Personally, I actually like this trade a lot for the Brewers, as Ruiz and Gasser could be two huge pieces for the future. I don’t think it hurts a ton in the short-term either. Hader is arbitration-eligible next season, so this is not a rental for San Diego.
DraftKings still had the Brewers at 20/1 and Padres at 22/1, but we’ll see if there are adjustments to those odds as the dust settles. I think the "shock" of a big name like Hader could move Milwaukee's price up a little bit.
One thing to consider is that this deal doesn't prevent the Padres from getting Juan Soto. CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano and Robert Hassell could all be centerpieces in a Soto trade. If AJ Preller is going to be hyper-aggressive and get Soto, their World Series odds could be cut in half into the 10/1 or 12/1 range.
The Brewers are still -275 to win the NL Central and the Padres are 40/1 to catch the Dodgers in the NL West, but are -500 to make the playoffs. (10:45 a.m. PT)
Yankees acquire RP Scott Effross from Cubs: There were some that felt Effross was the best reliever available because he is under club control for five more seasons. In 47 appearances across 44 innings, the side-arming right-hander has a 2.66 ERA with a 2.19 FIP and 50 strikeouts against 11 walks.
With Michael King out for the season with a fractured elbow and the recent control struggles of Clay Holmes, it makes sense that the Yankees prioritized a reliever and they found one that they’ll have for a long time. The Cubs got Triple-A starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski in the deal.
The Yankees are still one of the short shots at + 390 to win it all. (10:30 a.m. PT)
Braves reunite with INF/OF Ehire Adrianza from Nationals: Adrianza has only played 31 games and had 94 plate appearances with the Nationals, but he had his second-best offensive season and provided a lot of versatility as a utility infielder for the Braves last season. This move has next to no impact, but allows the Braves to keep some of their primary guys fresh for the stretch run.
The Braves are + 950 at DraftKings to repeat as champions. (10:25 a.m. PT)
SP Luis Castillo acquired by Mariners in four-player deal: This was a win-win deal for both sides. The Mariners, who entered play on Sunday 21st in starting pitcher fWAR and eighth in ERA, but 22nd in FIP, got a workhorse in Castillo, who has a career 3.62 ERA with a 3.70 FIP in 792.1 innings of work. He’s struck out over a batter per inning with an elite ground ball rate and goes from the second-best offensive environment in Cincinnati to a much friendlier ballpark in Seattle.
Castillo fills a tremendous need for Seattle and is also a long-term extension candidate. The cost for doing business was high, as the Mariners sent four players in a package that included SS Noelvi Marte, the 20-year-old who was the 11th-ranked prospect at FanGraphs coming into the season. He’s at High-A right now, but should move quickly up the Reds’ system.
Another name to watch down the line in that trade is 18-year-old Edwin Arroyo, who has monster power and has hit 13 homers in A-ball with a .316/.385/.514 slash line with 21 stolen bases. He’s a very toolsy player and the Reds must love his upside.
Rays add platoon bat OF David Peralta from Diamondbacks: The Rays have had a ton of injuries to deal with this season, so it makes sense that they added some outfield help in Peralta. He’s a true platoon bat with a .296/.351/.492 slash against righties in his nine-year career. Arizona got a 19-year-old catcher playing in Rookie ball named Christian Cerda with some interesting raw tools.
Mets bolster outfield depth with Tyler Naquin from Reds: Naquin has shown flashes as a hitter, but has had major problems staying healthy throughout his career. He’s basically a league average hitter with a .268/.322/.451 slash for his career and is just a little below league average this season. He is, however, batting .260/.327/.473 against righties, so he’ll be used in a platoon/pinch-hitting role in those matchups.
Yankees get OF Andrew Benintendi from Royals: The first big domino of the Deadline was the trade of Benintendi from Kansas City to the Big Apple. The Yankees isolated Benintendi early and were very familiar with him from his Red Sox, but when we found out that he was unvaccinated, many felt that would be a stumbling block. He’s an impending free agent who was batting .320/.387/.398 at the time of the trade. A high on-base percentage makes sense around guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
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