3 Football Betting Strategies to Win Big & Make Income Online | Caan Berry

welcome to this week's upload where
we're going through three successful football betting strategies so I'm
creating this video because several of you have asked in the comments recently
about football betting strategy and also honestly believe that anyone can make an
income online through football betting when they have the right strategy in
fact several of football's most successful punters have been trading
these prices for a number of years now it's often done by reading previous data
patterns on past events and applying all that you've learned to the present which
is exactly what this video is about because I'm going to share three
different strategies that you can consistently apply it to the football
betting markets in order to extract a profit over the longer term but before I
do that I just want to mention last week gave away 310 pound cash to one lucky
YouTube viewer with in this video we're going to do another cash giveaway so
stay tuned to see if you've won the cash and also how you can go about collecting
that from us so onto the strategies so before we get into the nuts and bolts of
strategy there's a very crucial point I need to make and it is a large problem
but it's also part of the solution when you're building betting strategy or
successfully betting on football and that is fanaticism
so football was very passionate sport there's a lot of biases within the
markets and that's because there's biases within people that follow
football now you don't want to be one of those people you can't be emotional you
can't be too passionate too connected and attached to a team or a league or a
player okay you need to eradicate as much of that bias as you possibly can to
effectively implement your strategy within the market now when I talk about
trading within this clip too some people may be confused betting and trading or
extremely similar basically when you're trading you're opening a betting
position and then you're cashing out that betting position to lock in the
profit and you're doing so with an edge or advantage within the market it may
very sound very simple on the top level and in many ways it is but it's a little
bit more tricky to execute in the markets if you've already tried is
highly likely that you understand where I'm coming from
with that one so in this video it's gonna be more practical I'm gonna tell
you some practical ways with some logical reasons back
including some graphs and strategy and data and information meaning it's
possible for anyone to do I'd also advise getting some trading software
right for all of your trading just because it gives you more information
quicker information and it's more useful for making informed decisions as you'll
see later in this video and on top of that you want some live
streaming of some sort for the match that's going on that you're betting and
trading on that point in time now the more live that is the more helpful it's
going to be to you if you're using HD services and all this 4k kind of stuff
then you can expect significant delay Betfair live video is typically quick
enough it's usually worth a few seconds behind and you can take that one step
further if you really want to go die hard there's people out there that
collect biss keys get satellites in their back garden just so they can
hijack the TV stream and beat everybody to the market in terms of placing bets
but that's quite extreme that's not for this video this video is
focused solely on strategy and implementing yourself in the market
where you can find value and where that is now the benefits of having a strategy
are really quite obvious it's going to help you avoid impulsive behavior in
silly things but clicks in the market obviously it's repeatable once you've
got a successful strategy refined down and you believe in it and you're willing
to put your money on the table it's more durable long term and you can scale it
up over time even through harder times you know that you can weather the storm
so we're going to get into these three strategies now because I've gone on
enough already and the third one in my opinion is the best one and we've got
the quality live example to show you exactly how that works too so starting
off of strategy one it's very low risk strategy and there's little sometimes
there's no risk involved in doing this although I'm not going to kid you you
know you can't necessarily do it in every single football match but I'm here
to tell you the truth and actually help you rather than get you to mindlessly
place bets so the reason this strategy works is because it's focusing on an
imbalance in probabilities meaning you're more often likely to get a bigger
upside than you are downside and therefore it will put you
in the green long term player psychology on pitch is very important a key element
to this strategy as is overreact behavior in terms of people betting on
the football not people playing football people betting on the football and again
that same group of people panicking panic from losers quite frankly which is
not going to be us so just to elaborate on that slightly
more there is as you in fact you'll see in a moment with the chart that I'm
about to explain and highlight on the screen there is an imbalance in terms of
there's more upside than there is downside that the player psychology on
pitch is extremely important because this set up happens after a goal has
been scored and typically around that point in time player behavior changes or
there's a lull for a brief period sometimes there's a counter-attack from
the countering team which is going to go in our favor – and then the overreacted
behavior is again those fanatics of people who have always previously
mentioned in the opening to this video that people are feeling like they've
missed out on potentially he's going to move the market in our favor
and again those losers and they're panicking or chasing their their losses
maybe and they're cashing out profits really quickly after the goal and they
are all gonna work for us in our favor to give us an advantage in the market so
the way to make the best of this strategy in terms of winning is to make
sure you come in with an opportune entry position entry bet for that opening bet
in your in your strategy the offering value at price for yourself not for
everybody else so you're offering poor value for everyone else and it also
exploits a natural stalling point within the market so it's low risk we're
looking after the losses and then waiting for the upturn whilst everyone
else is in turmoil quite frankly we're gonna take advantage of that so if we
look at this chart you can see it's the the chart on but Fez exchange for a
football match there has been two goals and this matches very notably on screen
there and that is where the price is dropped now when the price drops you can
see that there is this routine pattern of behavior there's an overreaction that
goes all the way down and we're highlighted on screen there with the
green dotted line so you want to place your opening bet so the opening part of
this strategy is to place a lay bet at the bottom price there or a roundabout
there you don't have to get to use that price and you're offering a bet to the
market so the market over reacts sometimes it can
go on for sort of like 20-30 seconds while the market sorts itself out
bouncing around typically it's not for too long
but like I say we're here we're here to make money not you know sort of spin you
some some dit the market then corrects itself from goes back to where the
yellow line is dotted across the screen there which will put you in profit to
start looking at this example that give you around about six ticks profit that
you could cash out for but the most important point is the lull in play so
after there's a goal gone in there's often encounter from the opposing team
which can then push the price far further out and it's quite unlikely I
mean it does happen occasionally but it's quite unlikely there's two goals in
quick succession and that comes down to the player psychology on pitch – they've
just scored a goal is their main priority to then try and whack in
another one within the space of a few minutes so you're left with a position
where potentially there's a massive upside because if the cap the countering
team's score the price goes back out to 1.7 and you're in for a huge profit
whereas the team that have just scored are far less likely to have another goal
in quick succession it's almost like creating yourself free bet within the
market any size or state that you want as long as you can get a match down the
bottom there so quickly just to interrupt before we hit up strategy
number two I'm gonna do a hundred pound cash giveaway for one subscriber to this
channel he's left to comment recently just like we did in last week's video so
you can see on the left there of select public subscribers I'm choosing 10
different names from the list that have recently commented to any video on this
channel and as long as I've got a subscriber badge next to their name and
then going to use the random number generator up on the top right there to
pick the winner get in touch with them and send them a hundred quid cash no
questions asked now if the prize isn't claimed for any reason we'll do a redraw
for this cash prize next week in a different video upload so stay tuned
check out and congratulations to cloudy palms this week the winner so onto
strategy number two and this is another decent one although I'd say out of the
three this is the weakest now you've probably heard of time decay before in
football and this strategy is based around time decay probably of a few
differences to what you've heard elsewhere so the reason it works is
because chance deteriorates
it's overtime as you can see on the chart on the right there and so there is
movement in the market in one direction we know which direction the market
should be moving in which is a benefit to some degree and we want to exploit
price movement as it happens knowing that it goes in that one direction the
other reason that this strategy works relatively well is because you can tie
this in with player intent and motivation in terms of what's happening
on pitch with your own football knowledge remember trading or betting should
always be viewed like a boxing match where you can choose to step into the
ring and take a punch you don't have to be in the game all the time is one
saying so with this strategy particularly be very careful when you do
and don't use it the whole advantage is to step back
keep minimum exposure in the market at any one time looking for that area of
maximum movement in line with time decay so the best way of winning with this
strategy is to target areas of accelerated decay we're gonna highlight
that and go through that in a moment in more depth focus on keeping that minimum
exposure as I say in terms of potential loss manage the downside and offer entry
bets only value prices again much like the previous strategy and seek extreme
domination on the pitch basically so you want to look at things like expected
goals shots off target shots on target teams keeping the ball into the corners
later in the match because quite frankly you know domination is what this
strategy is all about if there's domination on pitch then it's a safer
environment to use this strategy we don't want it to be competitive
competition is for losers in terms of betting quite frankly and is a fair
statement if we look at this chart here I'll explain what these lines on the
chart are all about so you've got the football match from the start there you
can see the trading volume down the bottom very small portion where there's
a large chunk of volume match that is pre-match the match is then started
throughout the match it's gone to about midway you can see there's a large spike
in volume and price activity is stalled now the reason the price activity is
stalled it's a good at halftime there's no match going on nothing's happening
and so the price was flat more or less now the second half is
where you see the time decay accelerate so that's what I've highlighted on the
chart here so we've got the dark black line in the bottom and the dark black
line at the top and that is the the area where there was the most movement in
this particular match in the short space of time highlighted by the light gray
lines now the Betfair chart something to bear
in mind you should probably should bear in that in mind with the previous chart
also are not in relation to time so you know that first chunk on the left there
down the bottom where there's a large volume matched pretty much that could
have been two days whereas the small chunk that I'm highlighting there was
more like five minutes so in the space of five minutes we've
gone for a price movement of about two point zero eight two point one all the
way up to two point three slightly above that a two point three two but all of
that happened in the space of a few minutes in game in the second half
because time decay was accelerating the price now the strategy is built around
what's actually happening in the match so you must have seen it in the past
players start playing the ball into the corner they know the score line they're
looking for points from the match it in the various league tables and they play
in the strategic game so what you're looking for is you know when the balls
out of play theres not a lots going on there's no motivation there's no intent the
balls being held back in certain areas and there's quite frankly not likely to
be a goal and then you quickly nip in and out the market minimum exposure for
maximum return when time decay is moving at a fair speed
like I say strategy you can use in many different matches would just be very
careful that you don't use in the wrong environment because that's when a goal
will go against you and I don't want to happen because I mean you have to do
several other matches to bring the profit back on par so strategy three and
probably my favorite strategy is around parallel market intent so what do we
mean by that well you know I've named it that because that is the reason for the
strategy working and the reason is that there are parallel markets that have the
same intent even though there are different markets okay when there is
change in one area it means that the market has to change elsewhere or a
similar market has to change elsewhere and its fastest finger first so we're
thinking about injuries stuff like that something I can relate this to in horse
racing is activity that happens that Cheltenham will then impact the prices at
Aintree around the ground national meeting around about a month later so if
you're sat watching the Grand National meeting markets whilst Cheltenham is on
and you see what's happening in the final home straight you can often catch
a price movement at Aintree because it is a parallel type market the same
happens in football so when we think about winning you want to use your
football knowledge you want to have live information at your fingertips
you want to think about areas that this is going to work so team sheets
future matches injuries if a player is injured it stands to reason if say for
example a team's star player is injured in final 20 minutes of a game but
they've got other games to follow on in the league
later that month then the price is going to change elsewhere so you want to think
like a football manager when you're thinking about where you've got to find
your trades with this one and then you need to react as quickly as possible
now isn't the strategy that most people will be expecting but it's an extremely
reliable one so thinking back to team sheets you know news comes out and the
price moves that can be an hour before 20 minutes before it depends what's
happening and what's happening in the news I have got a very good high-quality
example the space of a few minutes to share with you on this one where I
actually done it and some news was released about a football team around
about an hour before the start of the match which we're now going to put in
the end screen of this video to make sure you click that one to follow
through it's a few minutes long and it shows you not strategy number three in
action also don't forget to like this video and subscribe to the channel for
further betting strategy related content

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