3 Simple Rules for Winning Traders On Betting Exchange Markets – Juicestorm






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Whenever I hear financial Betfair Traders tell me, “I don’t have any opinion, I just trade price action.” I always smile and think to myself that the trader is both an idiot and a liar if they’re a trader in my other market.
But in the betting exchange markets things are a little different.
However, the truth of the matter —in both markets— is that every time you enter the market you are implicitly rendering an opinion on the future movement of price. The difference between those Betfair Traders who do so implicitly versus those who put forth an explicit reason for their trade is that the former may have no clue of what they are doing while the later at least try to figure out the story behind the trade even if they’re only using a weight of money indicator on Betfair which used to work so well.
It goes without saying that I have little respect for Betfair Traders who mechanically follow price action like mindless robots elsewhere.
In the betting exchange market you get paid not for what is happening now, but for what will happen in the future and if you cannot figure out what is likely to drive price towards your target you are just a lemming in the market.
Right or wrong, developing an opinion is the cornerstone of a winning strategy in all Betfair Trading markets.
To politely paraphrase a very crude Wall Street saying, opinions are like faces – everyone has one. Developing an opinion, even one that is ultimately correct, is utterly worthless if the market happens to disagree with your assessment.
The history of Betfair Trading is littered with brilliant analysts who were absolutely correct on their calls and yet were bankrupted by the vagaries of price action before they were ever proven right.
Your opinion may be dead on, but as Betfair Traders it is price movement, not opinion that we are Betfair Trading. Until and unless price corroborates your opinion you have no entry signal for your trade.
Little Known Ways To Make Money On Betfair
The Secret Of A Profit In Betfair Trading
More than anything else great Betfair Traders are good money managers.
I’ve always believed that you can put two great Betfair Traders on the opposite side of a position and often both of them will wind up making money. On the other hand put two novices in the same spot and they will more than likely both lose. Betfair Trading above all is the art of managing the unknown.
Let’s say you own a sandwich shop in a popular tourist trap. Most likely you would know to within 10 or 20 sandwiches how many customers you will have every single day of the year.
Now imagine that sandwich shop was the Betfair market.
The day to day variance would drive most sandwich shop owners insane. Some days you may sell 500 sandwiches, other days you may have to dump all your food supplies into the garbage as no business came through your door.
You really do not need to get involved on the favourite in every UK horse race. And if you do you probably won’t be around long! Burn out and over Betfair Trading spring to mind. But there are notable exceptions to every rule!
Every time you trade the operating principle is hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The only way I’m able to control risk and at the same time participate in the market is by always cutting my position in half once a short profit target is met. As little as 1 or 2 points on the betting exchange. And let the rest run with a break even stop. No matter what anyone tells you, there is simply no way to know if any given trade will be successful. But I really believe that half a loaf is better than none.
Success in Betfair Trading is contingent not only on your analysis but on your ability to properly manage your position.
That is why the game is hard.
In 2021 TradeHost traded 7,937 Betfair UK, IE & AU horse racing and greyhound markets.
In Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2022 TradeHost is busier than ever and even more profitable with a whopping 16,960 Betfair markets traded.
All results for the 24,897 Betfair markets traded are here.

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Top 50 Comments on JuiceStorm.com

5 years of University paying money is smart. But 5 years developing Betfair Trading skills / building a business is stupid. That’s why 90% of Betfair Traders give up too soon.


5 years of University paying money is smart. But 5 years developing Betfair Trading skills / building a business is stupid. That’s why 90% of Betfair Traders give up too soon.
It’s impossible to become a top 1% if you keep listening to the 99%.
Be obsessed with becoming a better trader than yesterday.
6 Betfair Trading mind killers: – Ego – Fear – Pride – Greed – Anger – Revenge Conquer these, and you will conquer your mind.
Paradoxically, you trade better when you stop thinking about money.
If you want to win, you need discipline. If you want to win big, you need confidence. If you want to win the game, you need consistency.
Impatient Betfair Traders will always lose in the long term. A trader who can’t wait will never be a successful trader. Patience is the most important Betfair Trading skill.
Many Betfair Traders have an edge, but they can’t execute. That’s why Betfair Trading is 90% psychology.
Making money is easy. Keeping money is hard. Risk management is essential.
Your Betfair Trading success starts the day you realise losing is normal.
Every successful trader sucked in the beginning. No reason to give up.
Stop chasing money. Start chasing progress every single day.
The best life changing habit in Betfair Trading is thinking in probabilities.
Treat your losses like bills. Every month you have them. They’re just costs of Betfair Trading.
You spend 1-2-3 years looking for the perfect Betfair Trading indicator, Until you realise price action is king.
The mental strength you develop to become a successful trader will completely change your non-Betfair Trading life.
Anyone can become a successful trader. Only a few stay in the game long enough to become one.
Self-discipline will take you to places where no college degree can take you.
A stop loss is the best tool to protect your Betfair Trading and mental health.
How to develop discipline without Betfair Trading: – Read every day – Write every day – Run/Lift every day Just get addicted to repetition.
Excellent post – it explains Betfair Trading very well and I think I will get people I know to read it as it will help them understand what I do better!
Hi Leon, thanks mate and I look am looking forward to you being a guest on Wednesday. Stay lucky.
I enjoyed the read about Betfair Trading. Sums up for me why personally I am not a very good manual trader. On the flip side my bot which does what it is told is much better.
The opinion bit is so important. There a few phrases that all keep me honest. One is a price of a selection only indicates the general opinion of people and can bear no reflection on its actual chance. The second is that a horse has no idea what price it is.
Betfair Trading is often is more profitable when you don’t share the same opinions as the majority which fortunately clearly I don’t, since I find horse racing the most profitable and predictable sport.
Hi Brian, glad you enjoyed it mate and thanks for the comments.
Not sure I agree with Rule 2 for all Betfair Trading types – momentum Betfair Traders – yes, value Betfair Traders – no.
http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2008/11/my-correct-opinion-is-worthless_25.html
Hi Cassini, thanks for for dropping in.
I take your point. But for me I like to see the price of a horse moving towards the price I feel it should be before I’ll enter a trade based on it continuing in that direction. Often I’ll be wrong though.
If I go against the momentum simply because of my opinion of value then I will not be comfortable. No matter how much I value my opinion.
I’m sure you know that many losing punters looking for value use flawed logic betting favourites. Because favourites win about 30% of races these punters think that by backing favourites which are at better percentage odds than 30% they will show a profit. So they back favourites at better odds. All that happens is the winning strike rate of these favourites adjusts downwards so backing these favourites still loses money. But they’ve had great value so it makes it worthwhile?
Another aspect of value and its uncertainty is from bookies who are just guessers IMO, they price up from the tissue and copy the guy in the next pitch. Try to get decent money on and you will be wasting your time. Value is a myth. The “professionals” won’t even stand by it. In case they’re wrong.
However, the most successful betting exchange Betfair Traders are usually very opinionated and yes, many would trade in the way that you describe. Would they be more successful if they didn’t? We’ll never know. They’ll never change.
This article was about Betfair Trading. Your “… style is to watch the game, form opinions (often flip-flopping many times during a game)” and “…to find value by disagreeing with the market.” Sir, you have a gift. Few share it. And good luck in your search for value. It works for you and so I can’t knock it – for you. But going against any market and basing any trade on your opinion when the market doesn’t share it could be a recipe for disaster.
Many will disagree with me Cassini. And that’s fine. But I welcome the debate. Ladies and gents, have a great day finding value, Betfair Trading, gambling or whatever combination floats your boat. And good luck to you all as always.
[…] was in response to my original post below where Rule 2 started a rather lively discussion as you’ll see above. Rule 1 […]
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RESULT 20:30 Wolverhampton (A.W)

1st World Without Love 7/2
2nd Golden Keeper 7/2
3rd LEnclume 11/1
RESULT 19:30 Wolverhampton (A.W)

1st Mountain Queen 10/3
RESULT 19:00 Wolverhampton (A.W)

1st Thapa VC 4/1
RESULT 18:30 Wolverhampton (A.W)

1st Tawafag 15/8
2nd Ferensby 7/1
3rd Red Hat Eagle 6/4F
RESULT 18:00 Wolverhampton (A.W)

1st Irregular Warfare 2/7F
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3rd Flying Spirit 33/1
RESULT 17:30 Wolverhampton (A.W)

1st Venetian 9/4
2nd Hadley Park 6/5F
3rd Dragonball Prince 9/1
RESULT 17:00 Wolverhampton (A.W)

1st Pure Angel 7/4
2nd So Many Questions 18/1
3rd Great State 16/1
RESULT 16:30 Wolverhampton (A.W)

1st My Mirage 25/1
2nd Sicario 6/5F
3rd Jenny Ren 11/2
RESULT 16:05 Kempton

1st Get Back Get Back 7/1
2nd First Quest 8/1
RESULT 15:05 Kempton

1st Call Me Lord 11/2
2nd Captain Morgs 3/1F
RESULT 14:35 Kempton

1st Frere Darmes 15/8F
2nd Haddex Des Obeaux 11/4
3rd Dorking Lad 14/1
RESULT 14:00 Kempton

1st Twig 1/4F
2nd Ajp Kingdom 17/2
RESULT 13:25 Kempton

1st Dalamoi 7/2C
2nd Quick Draw 7/2C
3rd Dreaming Blue 25/1
RESULT 12:50 Kempton

1st Attacca 10/11F
2nd Alien Storm 7/2
RESULT 16:13 Cork

1st Mollys Mango 5/2
2nd Stormalong 11/2
RESULT 15:57 Naas

1st Dha Leath 4/1J
2nd New Hill 10/1
3rd Mr Rango 11/2
4th San Aer 17/2
RESULT 15:50 Ffos Las

1st Brulure Noire 3/1J
RESULT 15:43 Cork

1st Walnut Beach 7/2F
2nd Halsafari 20/1
3rd Harveys Quay 7/1
RESULT 15:27 Naas

1st Drop The Anchor 16/1
2nd My Mate Mozzie 5/1
3rd Powerful Aggie 12/1
4th Tashi 50/1
RESULT 15:20 Ffos Las

1st Phantom Getaway 11/8F
2nd Holdbacktheriver 12/1
283 runners yesterday. The largest BSP winner was Drop The Anchor with a BSP of 36.96 (bookmaker SP of 17). InPlay, the highest matched winner on Betfair was Blue Shark at 200. Lot Of Joy was matched at 1.05 and lost.
5 years of University paying money is smart.

But 5 years developing Betfair Trading skills / building a business is stupid.

That’s why 90% of Betfair Traders give up too soon.
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Top 50 Comments on JuiceStorm.com.
22 races and 189 horses in 3 meetings today: Carlisle, Wolverhampton, Kempton so have a great day trading on Betfair!
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