Best Bets for UFC 275 – Bleacher Report

What: UFC 275
Where: Singapore Indoor Stadium, Kallang, Singapore
When: June 11
How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV
What’s at Stake: Another weekend. Another 9,000 miles.
OK, it’s a shade past 8,800 miles from the UFC’s Las Vegas home base to the Southeast Asian venue for this month’s pay-per-view show that goes live Saturday at 10 p.m. ET.
Still, the promotion staged a Fight Night show from the Apex last Saturday and will pack up the production gear for a marathon southwest flight across the Pacific Ocean for an event that’ll be topped by the eighth and ninth championship fights of 2022.
Glover Teixeira takes center stage in the main event for the first defense of the light heavyweight title he took from Jan Blachowicz at UFC 267 last October. The 42-year-old will face streaking No. 2 contender Jiri Prochazka, who’s won 12 straight since 2015.
Teixeira made his pro debut in 2002, when his upcoming foe was only nine.
In the co-main slot, flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko puts her own five-year win streak up against fourth-ranked challenger Taila Santos, who’s gone 4-1 in the UFC since earning a contract following a 2018 appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series.
The B/R combat and betting teams got together to assess how the fights are likely to go and where some possibilities for profit might be found.

A reigning champion on a four-year win streak isn’t often a long shot. But it’s even less often that a challenger arrives having won 12 straight fights of his own, including 11 that haven’t required a final bell.
That’s the case with Prochazka, who’s a solid -200 (risk $200 to win $100) on the DraftKings moneyline, while Teixeira is a +170 (risk $100 to win $170) underdog.
And it’s just as sure that the fight won’t last 25 minutes.
The Czech Republic-born challenger has gone the distance in only one of his 28 career victories, with 25 arriving via KO/TKO and two more by submission. He’s made it to the third round in only three of his 32 career fights.
The Brazilian champion is equally adept at ending fights early. He has 18 KOs and 10 submissions in 33 career wins.
The biggest profit out there would come from Prochazka (+25000) breaking character and managing to get a submission in Round 5. But the smarter money suggests he takes control in the first round and gets the finish sometime in the early stages of the second.
The B/R Pick: Prochazka/Round 2 (Fight Lines/Round of Finish) +450

When it comes to the co-main event, score one for the champion.
Unlike the final fight, where the challenger is a significant favorite to engineer a title change, Shevchenko hasn’t lost to a fighter not named Amanda Nunes since 2010.
And unlike Jan Prochazka and Glover Teixeira’s proclivity for nearly always ending fights early, Shevchenko is an equal opportunity conqueror. She has eight KO wins, seven submissions and seven decisions across her 19-year career.
The champion is thus -630 on the moneyline, while Santos is +450.
For those looking for a reason to back the underdog, Santos is taller and longer, is adept at defending takedowns and lands significant strikes at a slightly higher rate per round.
Santos went the three-round distance for unanimous decisions in three straight wins between July 2020 and September 2021. She then choked out Joanne Wood in the first round this past November.
While she might not defeat Shevchenko, this fight could last for more than only a few minutes. Since there are few realistic opportunities for Shevchenko at plus money, a slight profit on a unanimous decision is enough.
The B/R Pick: Shevchenko (Fight to Be Won by Unanimous Decision) +150

The March 2020 bout between Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk was worthy of many descriptions.
It was a fight of the year. It was an instant classic. It was one of those fights that’ll get mentioned anytime another great one occurs.
It was also the start of a prolonged drought for both women.
The split decision earned by Weili at UFC 248 (two 48-47 cards for her, one against) was the last time she had her hand raised in victory. She has followed that fight with consecutive losses—one by KO and one by decision—to strawweight nemesis Rose Namajunas.
Meanwhile, Jedrzejczyk hasn’t fought in 27 months, the longest hiatus of her career.
Still, someone (probably) has to win this fight. Weili is a -165 favorite to make it two in a row in this rivalry, while Jedrzejczyk is a +145 underdog.
Physically speaking, Jedrzejczyk is taller, longer, lands more significant strikes and is better at defending takedowns. However, Weili has been far more likely over her career to end a fight early, scoring 17 finishes in 21 wins compared to Jedrzejczyk’s five in 16.
Add in her more recent activity, and it seems like she’s the smartest play, perhaps by a mid-round or late KO that’d enable a decent profit beyond the moneyline numbers.
The B/R Pick: Weili by KO/TKO/DQ (Winning Method/Method Victory) +350

If you’ve made it this far, you’re clearly into the concept of risk vs. reward. And while favorites and moneylines can be a worthwhile option, a well-chosen prop or parlay is nice, too.
Fortunately, this card isn’t hurting for intriguing options, even in the prelims.
Here are a few we’d suggest you take a look at:
Brendan Allen (Win by Submission & Under 1.5 Rounds) +380
Brendan Allen is a man who gets things done.
He’s fought eight times since arriving to the UFC in 2019, winning six times and finishing early in four of those victories. He also lost in the second round in both of his losses.
He’s matched with Australian-born Jacob Malkoun, who’s fought seven times as a pro and was dropped in 18 seconds by Phil Hawes only three fights ago at UFC 254.
Allen can finish. Malkoun can be finished.
And at nearly 4-to-1, why not take a chance and guess it happens quickly?
South Korea Stand Up (Kyung Ho Kang and Seung Woo Choi Win) +225
Picking one winner is hard. Picking two is, well…harder.
But we can’t resist a nationalistic double play.
Neither Kyung Ho Kang (+120) nor Seung Woo Choi (-235) are high-windfall propositions when it comes to the moneyline, so why not put them together with a chance at a slightly better plus-money payout?
Should Kang score a slight upset at bantamweight against Batgerel Danaa and Choi handle Josh Culibao at featherweight, a $100 bet would bring back a tidy $225.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Talia Santos (Round 4 – KO/TKO/DQ) +2200
Valentina Shevchenko has won seven consecutive title fights.
She’s stopped four opponents. She’s outpointed three others. None of the fights have ended before the second round, and five of them have gotten at least one minute into the third.
Two things leap off the profit-hungry page: 1) She wins and 2) It usually takes awhile.
A little fourth-grade math indicates that the seven fights have lasted an average of 3.71 rounds. It just so happens that a $100 outlay on the prospect of Shevchenko (or Talia Santos) winning by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4 would return $2,200 for the effort.
That return is so good, we can’t even count it on our fingers.
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