MLB Home Run Derby 2022 betting odds: Best bets, picks, and predictions – Sporting News
Will Pete Alonso claim his third-straight Home Run Derby crown, or can Ronald Acuña Jr. or Kyle Schwarber end his reign? All eyes will be on these sluggers on Monday night at Dodger Stadium when the eight-man, bracket-style HR derby format transpires, and you bet plenty of fans and bettors alike will be studying the odds boards and trying to predict the winner.
Alonso had +550 odds when he won the 2021 Home Run Derby at Coors Field with 74 home runs, defeating Orioles’ Trey Mancini (23-22) in the final round. Unlike last season, Alonso (+200) is the odds-on favorite this go around, as the betting markets have to respect the two-time champ’s ability to consistently crush baseballs into the bleachers.
Last season, a total of 309 home runs were hit, with the furthest ball traveling 520 feet off the bat of Nationals’ outfielder Juan Soto. It’s unlikely we see a ball travel that far this year with the derby taking place in Los Angeles, but don’t count out these sluggers’ ability to drive the baseball 500-plus feet.
While the majority of the credit is due to the individual hitter, a player’s pitcher plays a role in their effectiveness with players also competing against the clock. Pete Alonso wouldn’t have been as successful without ex-Mets bench coach Dave Jauss pitching to him. Jauss has been confirmed as Alonso’s pitcher in this year’s derby, giving Pete a realistic chance to notch his third straight title.
Dave Jauss, 4 Pitch Overlay (consecutive pitches). 😯 pic.twitter.com/5ORxsFB1ns
The bracket is set for Monday’s T-Mobile Home Run Derby #allstar #MLB pic.twitter.com/iBHQ52d0v0
Alonso and Jauss are an elite tandem that’s warranted as the odds-on favorites. Getting past Acuña in the first round figures to be his toughest test on the right side of the bracket.
These two squared off in the semifinals of the 2019 Home Run Derby, with Alonso hitting a buzzer-beating bomb to center field to advance to the championship round. Acuña’s full-field power and smooth swing make him a legit challenger to upset the two-time champ in round one.
A wager on Acuña at +650 could be worth a look, and despite matching up against Alonso in the first round, the Braves star right fielder has the fourth-best odds to win the derby.
Still, Alonso’s not one to wager against in this format, as he takes the Home Run Derby incredibly seriously and has shown the ability to launch a good deal of long balls in a short amount of time.
Soto’s got a shot to advance to the championship round on the left side of the bracket, making him a worthwhile betting pick at +600. Soto took out the 2021 odds-on favorite, Shohei Ohtani, in the first round last season but was unable to get past Alonso in the semifinals.
Dodger Stadium plays true to all hitters, with symmetrical dimensions over the whole outfield. Soto’s betting odds and implied probability give the lefty the best “value” to potentially win it all in 2022.
Soto’s entering the Home Run Derby during a torrid streak at the plate, slashing .409/.567/.864 over his past 15 games. While that’s not really conducive to success in the derby, it’s an interesting nugget to take note of leading in.
If you don’t think Soto can win the Home Run Derby but still make it to the finals, a wager on him to advance out of the left side of the bracket is +230.
Round 1- Schwarber vs Pujols- Player to Hit Highest Exit Velocity HR: Kyle Schwarber -145 (implied probability 59.18 percent)
It’s never easy betting against the Machine, but Schwarber’s price to hit the highest exit velocity on a home run in round one is relatively cheap. Per Baseball Savant, Schwarber sits in the 96th percentile in max exit velocity while Pujols sits in the 66th. When Schwarber connects, it’s likely going to be hit at a high exit velocity. Pujols’s max exit velo this season is 110.1 MPH while Schwarber’s is 114.8 MPH.
Let’s take a shot on two players ending a round with the same score, leading to a 60-second swing-off to determine who advances into the next round. We’ve had a swing-off in the past two derbies with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson dueling it out in 2019 and Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani equaling their first-round scores last year.