Tuesday's MLB betting odds, props & picks: How to bet on Max Scherzer's return to the Mets – Sporting News

Mad Max is back. On Tuesday night, the 37-year-old, three-time CY Young award-winning starter will make his first start for the Mets since straining his left oblique on May 18. Scherzer and the Mets travel to face the bottom-feeding Reds and are hefty -210 favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Is it worth laying the juice to bet on Mad Max? Below, we’ll discuss the best way to attack betting on Scherzer’s return to the mound.
Plain and simple, Scherzer (5-1, 2.54 ERA, 160 ERA+) and the Mets are warranted as a two-dollar road favorite on Tuesday night. Against current Reds hitters, Scherzer sports a dominant .174 opponent batting average and 33.5-percent strikeout rate.
While it can be tough to bet on a starter in his first start back from injury, Mad Max is a different breed. He knows what his body is capable of and wouldn’t rush a return to the rotation if he’s not able to give it his all.
Prior to being reinstated to the big league roster, Scherzer appeared in two rehab starts for the Binghampton Rumble Ponies (Double-A). The Mets ace logged 65 pitches in his first appearance and followed that with an 80-pitch outing last Wednesday. In total, Scherzer allowed four runs on seven hits with a 14:2 K-to-BB rate over eight innings during these starts.
Max Scherzer’s night is complete after 4.2 innings and 80 pitches. pic.twitter.com/nMwjXsukPA
Betting advice: Pass at the current numbers Unfortunately, the current money line and run-line markets on DraftKings sportsbooks are a fair indication of how this game should be priced, therefore the odds don’t present an “edge” that’s worth betting pre-game.
Scherzer’s dominant 33.5-percent strikeout rate against current Reds hitters makes his OVER 6.5 strikeout prop fairly enticing. However, with the current odds for Scherzer to achieve seven-plus strikeouts at a 60.78 percent implied probability, the betting markets have priced this proposition accordingly.
Wagering $155 to win $100 on him to achieve seven-plus strikeouts isn’t a profitable endeavor in the long term. The best bets can sometimes be the ones you don’t make, and staying away from his strikeout prop market in game one is the way to go.
Betting advice: Pass at the current number
Alas, we have a betting opportunity! With Cincinnati’s team total set at 1.5 runs through the 1st 5 innings at -115 odds, bettors can risk close to standard juice to get involved in Scherzer’s return to the rotation. Scherzer is very much capable of holding the Reds to fewer than two runs through five innings of work, and while there isn’t much wiggle room in terms of his margin for error, this market is the one to wager on pregame.
With Scherzer being a well-respected pitcher in the betting markets, there aren’t many times where the odds present an opportunity to make a smart wager on him. If you’re inclined to lay some juice, a bet on the Mets -0.5 runs through the 1st 5 innings (Mets to be leading by at least one run after five total innings) is another way to approach betting on his first start.
Scherzer’s ability to limit Cincinnati’s offensive output coupled with the Mets offense generating run support off Reds rookie Nick Lodolo (1-2, 5.52 ERA, 87 ERA+) can lead to the Mets holding a lead after five full innings of play.


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