Tuley's Takes Today: Friday betting recaps, Saturday Best Bets in NFL preseason, MLB 8/20 – VSiN





By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 
Friday was another mixed bag of errands and sports in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Friday’s recaps
NFL: Faves went 3-0 SU and ATS Friday night as the Patriots (-6.5 in 20-10 win vs. Panthers), Packers (-3.5 in 20-10 win vs. Saints) and Texans (-3 in 24-20 win at Rams) all won and covered. Home teams went 2-1 SU and ATS. Unders went 2-1 with Texans-Rams the lone Over.
More NFL: Faves took an 11-9 SU lead overall with 1 pick-'em (MIA-TB), but faves/dogs tied 10-10 ATS (50 percent). Home/road teams tied 10-10 SU while home teams lead 11-9 ATS (home/road stats don't include neutral-site Hall of Fame Game). Overs dipped to 15-6.
MLB: Faves went 8-6 Friday with Red Sox-Orioles closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by Nationals (+ 290 in 6-3 win at Padres), Royals (+ 173 in 3-2 win at Rays) and Rockies (+ 140 in 7-4 win vs. Giants). Home teams went 8-7. Overs/Unders split 7-7-1 with the push in HOU-ATL (8).
More MLB: Faves lead 1,064-698 SU (60.4 percent) on the season with 26 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 946-842 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 875-817-94 (51.7 percent).
Saturday’s Takes
A’s 1st 5 + 150 vs. Mariners: James Kaprielan (3-7, 4.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) has been pretty good to us this summer despite his losing overall record (note: the A’s are 10-9 in his starts, so he keeps them in games early) and at + 150 this is took good to pass up. I also like the Rangers 1st + 140 at the Twins with starter Greg Otto, who we pushed with this past Monday at 1-1 in the first 5 innings when he allowed just 1 runs in 6 innings while outdueling Kaprielan in an eventual 2-1 win.

Saturday: Broncos-Bills Under 42.5: This had also been bet down to 41.5 at some books as the market was agreeing that we won’t see much from these two offenses, though it’s been trending back up so 42.5 is available at some book though mostly 42s. After last week’s run of Overs, Unders are 3-1 so far in NFL Preseason Week 2.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.
Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.
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Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars
Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600
View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers
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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.
NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.
CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.
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